London’s probably tier three lockdown: the alert

Positive cases in London are on the rise and the concern grows

With a case rate of 151 per 100,000 people between October 17-23, up from 111 the week before, the British capital risks to be placed under a tier three lockdown within a fortnight unless infections fall significantly. According to the Imperial College London’s researchers, the city’s R rate, which measures the speed of reproduction of Covid-19, can be as high as 2,9. So, this means that each contaminated person can infect three others.

London’s probably tier three lockdown: the opinions

Regarding the possibility of a new lockdown, there are many opinions. Sources close to Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, for example, explained that it was highly likely that London would be moved to the third tier in the coming weeks. The invetitable consequence would be the closure of pubs and bar, unless they can offer substantial meals, and of gyms, casinos, betting shops, and leisure centers.

Also Robert Jenrick, the Communities Secretary, refused to exclude the possibility of putting London under tier three. “We haven’t taken those decisions. We are taking action in the places where the evidence very clearly shows the virus is strongest. But if it’s required in other places then obviously we’ll follow the science and do the same” he said in an interview with Sky News.

How to prevent the risk

London is currently facing the restrictions already made necessary by the Tier 2 but almost a fifth of England will soon be under the toughest restrictions as the number of patients in the hospital continues to rise.

An health official told that measures were more likely to make a difference if they were nationwide. A short “circuit breaker” lockdown after Christmas could help bring cases back down if the Government weaken to loosen restrictions to allow families to come together.

Boris Johnson is under increasing pressure to impose a nationwide lockdown before and after the holiday, to minimise the impact and to prevent a new wave of rapid growth. According to a source: “Releasing measures for two days is unlikely to cause a big upswing”. But Christmas brings people from all over the country to stay with their parents and friends, so its quite likely to be a spreading event. Infact, the source continued: “But people want to see their loved ones and they want to make physical contact, and we have to recognise that.”

READ MORE: Boris Johnson considering two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown