Some scientist researches on social distancing
A new study has warned that social distancing may be needed until 2022 to stop the spread of Covid. Based on the study, when social distancing can suppress critical cases to within hospital capacity, the infection will resurge once these measures are lifted. This will overwhelm hospitals to the extent that social distancing may need to be maintained intermittently into 2022, so the research suggests.
Scientists currently know little about that the new modeling study indicates the total incidence of the virus through 2025 will depend crucially on the duration of human immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently required to determine the extent of population immunity, whether immunity wanes, and at what rate. Covid-19 will follow Sars-CoV-1, and be eradicated by intensive public health measures after causing a brief pandemic. Instead, the transmission could resemble that of pandemic influenza by circulating seasonally.
The researchers report that under all scenarios simulated, including one-time and intermittent social distancing, infections resurge when the simulated social distancing measures are lifted. Their model indicates that when social distancing is relaxed when the transmissibility of the virus is increased in the autumn, an intense winter outbreak may occur, overlapping with the flu season and the higher capacity of hospitals.
Another scenario suggests a resurgence in Covid-19 could occur as far in the future as 2025. The researchers say that new treatments could lighten the need for stringent social distancing but in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022. This would give hospitals time to increase critical care capacity while allowing population immunity to accumulate.
The authors write in the Science journal: “Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to Sars-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, Sars-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
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